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MEET-U Project I: The key drivers of the preference for dynamic dark energy

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arXiv:2405.03983v1 Announce Type: cross
Abstract: Joint analysis of the baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO) measurement by the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) first data release, Type Ia supernovae (SNe) of the Dark Energy Survey Year 5 (DES5YR) release and cosmic microwave background (CMB) data favors a quintom-like dynamic dark energy model over the standard Lambda cold dark matter ($\Lambda$CDM) model at $3.9\sigma$ level (Adame et al. 2024). We demonstrate that the preference for dynamic dark energy does not rely on the detailed modeling of CMB physics and remains at $3.2\sigma$ level when the full CMB likelihood is replaced by a CMB acoustic-oscillation angle ($\theta_\star$) prior and a baryon abundance ($\Omega_bh^2$) prior. By comparing the data with over $10^4$ $\Lambda$CDM-based simulations, we find that both the SNe and BAO data contribute significantly to the preference for dynamic dark energy. The preference for dynamic dark energy is unlikely (probability $\lesssim 0.02$) due to unknown systematics in DES5YR SNe and statistical fluctuations in DESI BAO, or vice versa.

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